Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

This article shall discuss the luck/variance factor and attempts to show the difference between Cash and Tourneys. (Readers please take note that I'm a primarily a Cash game player and thus they maybe be some form of inherent bias, but there is objectivity in the discussion that follows)

For the purpose and direction of this article, let us limit luck to the form of badbeats only (Times when you put your money in good, but end up bad). Speaking of positive variance is no doubt essential, but it is something we prefer and not dread aganist.


Main Premise
Be in Cash or tourney, the short term luck factor is the same. In X number of hands, on a reasonable luck, you will hit Y number of badbeats. However, we do not know in which sequence or series this Y number will occur. Yet surprisingly, this fact alone has different implications for both cash and tourneys.

Suppose in a span of 1000 hands:

-For Cash: having a bad beat stretch in the last 900-1000 hands is not a big deal. It is theoretically possible to regain your lost dollars and sklansky bucks in the future. As cash is played in a continual basis, having a bad stretch does not seriously matter.

-For tourneys: suppose that 900-1000 hands is near the region of your final table. Especially when the payouts are crammed into the top 3 positions and they are especially huge, having a bad stretch in that period have more sinister implications. If that bad stretch occurs early in the tourney, it probably doesn't matter as well since it will be hard to go deeper. (Note, I have not spoken of positive variance which may occur in the similar stretch, and in most tourneys, you need them to occur in the right timings in order to win big)

So what are the deductions from this simple thought experiment?

In tourneys, the luck factor, both positive and negative, appears to be more significant. The reason being is, I propose, that due to the nature of tourneys themselves, at the later stages, chip stacks are shallower, M's get smallers, there is more Preflop, less significant postflop decisions, and thus a Good players edge aganist a weaker player is more diminished. (Think about it, the number of mistakes made/hand by a bad player is at most limited to 1 or 2 streets, preflop and flop)

In cash, the luck factor is essentially non-existent by virtue of the law of large numbers.(see my sklansky bucks article). Most of the money is made postflop with deeper stacks than tourneys, and a good players edge aganist a weak player can be maximised through more streets of play. By increasing the no of mistakes made by players across all 4 streets of holdem, it appears in literal sense to double the EV compared to tourneys.

In tourneys, the heavy payouts and the "idea of higher variance" may give a player the appearance of being really good (when they are running good) or being really bad (when actually running bad). The nature of tourneys and escalating payouts makes the game impossible not to ignore the emotional aspect of poker in short term poker. You need to embrace this aspect to do well in tourneys.

In cash, the emotional aspect has to be dealt with differently. Short term wise, one has to be emotionless with regards to his results. In a sense, grinding cash game is more suited to the milder and less emotional temperament players.


Last but not least, its important to consider the long term aspect of winning players in these 2 games. In the long term, the good tourney and cash player, who ride through their variance train, will also come out winners. ROI of tourneys and ptbb/100 in cash ultimately translate to $/hr. However the path of getting to this $/hr is very different indeed. One is a gentler gradual path, the other is an emotional rollercoaster. One cannot ignore the fact that winning a big tourney has serious life changing implications - like Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold. But in all sense you just need to be very lucky in order to take down huge tourneys.

Takeaways
A good understanding of the nature of different games helps in your game selection. Different games cater to different mental psyches of different players. If you find yourself liking the adrenaline of playing tourneys, and don't mind the variance train, by all means play them. If you are like me, who prefers to be able to maximise my edge on weaker players, being able to rebuy and sit back with donks, play cash.

While its important to be good in all areas, the saying of "Jack of all trades, master of none" is very applicable in poker due to the sole reason that all games are different and are catered differently for people with different needs and mental psyches. Try out different games, and select the one that best suits your character. It might do you good in the long run!