Welcome July. Aims and goals

Very first day in July, a good morale booster to start the month off.

Goals for this month:
1) Aim to clock 30k hands. A pretty lofty goal I pressume, given my schedule and stuff thats going on.
2) Aim for 4PTBB/100 at least. My first 10k of 200nl has gone pretty decent, at about 8PTBB/100. I figured this winrate is pretty sustainable, given that I do not make any glaring errors. On 2+2 the biggest winner at this stake gnomeontilt has a long term 130k hands at about 5-6 ptbb/100. Certainly aiming to emulate this good player.
3) Enjoy poker. This is something that is pretty refreshing for me at 200nl. A new challenge, enjoying playing the hands and seeing the results. I've been running standard thus far for the last 10k hands. Though I would not like a downswing, I believe it will certainly come one day or another and I'll be better able to cope with it.
4) Spend more time playing in the 'A' game zone. Tommy Angelo is the nuts.

June Summary

$168/hr

+ $289.35 FT rakeback
+ $79.10 NOIQ cashback

Total Profit = $3125.32


Have barely played the minimum required to get an ironman level this month...So a $100 mid year bonus is waiting for me to clear.. Guess it will be cleared in no time in FT at 200nl.

On a whole, I think i ran okay this month, about even in sklansky bucks. So pokergods have already repaid me in whatever they have owed. Certainly finding myself in good spots aganist fishes as well as the regulars. Managed to do a checkraise shove allin on the river with the 2nd nuts and got paid off by a regular with top pair(who surprisingly must have given me too much credit for attempting a checkraise bluff. Thats how bad my image on the table is)

Certainly a good month in terms of profits but not so in terms of volume. Work really saps you out and the timings left to play aren't really that conducive. Had to make do with weekends and such.

Coaching as been going well too. Am glad that one of my students really took to the knowledge imparted and gained some newer perspective towards poker. There are a few budding newer players who definitely have the character and attributes to make it in online poker. Some of them have so much drive and passion that it somehow made me ashamed of my volume. Given today's availability of free resources, it is almost a cardinal sin to not make use of them for newer players. As always, my advice to them is to take it slowly, and study more, play more. It took me close to a year before something clicked and poker never looked the same again. Keep working hard and find your own eureka moment..it is always there for you to search.

3rd Week - First 10 buyins at 200nl

$148/hr

+ $217.46 FT rakeback
+ $79.10 NOIQ cashback

Total Profit = $2155.53


Definitely running well in this short sample of hands, would gladly take the hourly anytime. This is probably the easiest and most relaxing 2k month ever. Goal is to continue grinding at 200nl to realize the true win and hourly rate. Its definitely possible making a decent livnig at this level with the correct parameters, like multitabling with a suitable winrate.

One influence this month is seeing leatherass post his long term highstakes winrate. Seeing his rather nitty PF stats further validates a point that PF stats are not significant parameters that govern your winrate, rather its the postflop analysis and lines taken. Postflop is where all the big money is made or loss. I play probably in the converged region of 23/19 which is probably standard TAG at these stakes, but my PF game is pretty much dynamic and based on table conditions. An implication is that sacrificing a little preflop ev, is probably worth it if you can make it up postflop. No point of getting unneccesary into 3betting/4betting aganist regulars unless it is a damn obvious play to make.

Another concept that I've been using instinctively but have not realised in general poker concepts is that of leverage. CTS vids probably shows this very well. The idea of making good sized raises that forces opponent to either go all in or fold is a very good leverage concept. E.g. 100nl, CO raise 4bb, Btn 3bets to 13bb, CO 4bets to 29-31 bbs. Concept of leverage is that you get good value with your bluff raises when they fold, and as well as forcing the player to commit (which you are going to call with hands that you 4bet with). This can apply to draws, made hands, and bluffs as well and it works tremendously well if you balance your range well.

Gotta pen this down before I forget all about it.

Comparison of luck factor in Cash and Tourney Games.

This article shall discuss the luck/variance factor and attempts to show the difference between Cash and Tourneys. (Readers please take note that I'm a primarily a Cash game player and thus they maybe be some form of inherent bias, but there is objectivity in the discussion that follows)

For the purpose and direction of this article, let us limit luck to the form of badbeats only (Times when you put your money in good, but end up bad). Speaking of positive variance is no doubt essential, but it is something we prefer and not dread aganist.


Main Premise
Be in Cash or tourney, the short term luck factor is the same. In X number of hands, on a reasonable luck, you will hit Y number of badbeats. However, we do not know in which sequence or series this Y number will occur. Yet surprisingly, this fact alone has different implications for both cash and tourneys.

Suppose in a span of 1000 hands:

-For Cash: having a bad beat stretch in the last 900-1000 hands is not a big deal. It is theoretically possible to regain your lost dollars and sklansky bucks in the future. As cash is played in a continual basis, having a bad stretch does not seriously matter.

-For tourneys: suppose that 900-1000 hands is near the region of your final table. Especially when the payouts are crammed into the top 3 positions and they are especially huge, having a bad stretch in that period have more sinister implications. If that bad stretch occurs early in the tourney, it probably doesn't matter as well since it will be hard to go deeper. (Note, I have not spoken of positive variance which may occur in the similar stretch, and in most tourneys, you need them to occur in the right timings in order to win big)

So what are the deductions from this simple thought experiment?

In tourneys, the luck factor, both positive and negative, appears to be more significant. The reason being is, I propose, that due to the nature of tourneys themselves, at the later stages, chip stacks are shallower, M's get smallers, there is more Preflop, less significant postflop decisions, and thus a Good players edge aganist a weaker player is more diminished. (Think about it, the number of mistakes made/hand by a bad player is at most limited to 1 or 2 streets, preflop and flop)

In cash, the luck factor is essentially non-existent by virtue of the law of large numbers.(see my sklansky bucks article). Most of the money is made postflop with deeper stacks than tourneys, and a good players edge aganist a weak player can be maximised through more streets of play. By increasing the no of mistakes made by players across all 4 streets of holdem, it appears in literal sense to double the EV compared to tourneys.

In tourneys, the heavy payouts and the "idea of higher variance" may give a player the appearance of being really good (when they are running good) or being really bad (when actually running bad). The nature of tourneys and escalating payouts makes the game impossible not to ignore the emotional aspect of poker in short term poker. You need to embrace this aspect to do well in tourneys.

In cash, the emotional aspect has to be dealt with differently. Short term wise, one has to be emotionless with regards to his results. In a sense, grinding cash game is more suited to the milder and less emotional temperament players.


Last but not least, its important to consider the long term aspect of winning players in these 2 games. In the long term, the good tourney and cash player, who ride through their variance train, will also come out winners. ROI of tourneys and ptbb/100 in cash ultimately translate to $/hr. However the path of getting to this $/hr is very different indeed. One is a gentler gradual path, the other is an emotional rollercoaster. One cannot ignore the fact that winning a big tourney has serious life changing implications - like Jerry Yang or Jamie Gold. But in all sense you just need to be very lucky in order to take down huge tourneys.

Takeaways
A good understanding of the nature of different games helps in your game selection. Different games cater to different mental psyches of different players. If you find yourself liking the adrenaline of playing tourneys, and don't mind the variance train, by all means play them. If you are like me, who prefers to be able to maximise my edge on weaker players, being able to rebuy and sit back with donks, play cash.

While its important to be good in all areas, the saying of "Jack of all trades, master of none" is very applicable in poker due to the sole reason that all games are different and are catered differently for people with different needs and mental psyches. Try out different games, and select the one that best suits your character. It might do you good in the long run!

Mid June Update (updated)

+ $113.44 FT rakeback
+ $79.10 NOIQ cashback

Total Profit = $ 1217.81

June has been minimal poker so far, logged only close to 4k hands when its already 2/3 past June. Well the reason being is that someone who matters so much more than poker is in town, and had to take a week off to finish my sch work, which ends this week.

The move up to 200nl has gone decent. According to Poker EV, the poker gods still owe me about $400+ worth of sklansky bucks, and this is definitely pleasing to know. Have spewed a few stacks here and there, played pretty bad in certain spots imho.

Has been contemplating too long for the move up to 200nl, and after a few k hands, in general the style of play is similar to 100nl. Fishes are as bad, however the pool of thinking regulars has increased. It sounds contradictory, but as you move up, its easier to put regulars on hands because they just don't play weirdly, and partly because most of them play the same style as you. Anyway the general rule is to not mess with good regulars, table select for fishes, and exploit weak regulars.

Work resumes next week, and that leaves me with even less time for poker. Coupled with MGS4, I guess id be happy if I hit 10k hands this month with a decent profit.
The goal is to log as many hands as I can, during good traffic timings, and aim to have a good sample size for 200nl. I figure the worst I can do is around 2-2.5 ptbb/100, and thats inclusive of alot of spewy plays. With that, I aim to do about $75/hr 6 tabling 200nl. We will see at the end of the month.

Another reason why Poker is so Great

Kudos to FTP and Vpost.

Another $550 worth of Value. May rocks.

Life isn't a bed of roses. End May Updates

+$140 NoIQ bonus
+$182.33 NoIQ cashback
+$416.16 FTP rakeback

Profit = $2519.74


Had a pretty frustrating last week of may, ran really bad and played equally bad. Been getting into real good tables with 3-4 fishes, but as usual, getting outdrawn when the money is good and especially on the river.

In all, had about 8 KKs vs AAs all in PF last week alone, and a few of my AAs vs underpairs didn't really hold up. Typical AK vs AQ PF didn't go that well. Running about -$200 in luck equity this month, nothing spectacular in fact.

I guess its enough for this month, don't wish to play any further and decided to give myself a good break. As for goals for this month,

[x] big month in terms of hands
[ ] not so big month in terms of results
[x] cleared my 100k hand mark
[x] completed a few coaching sessions
[x] wrote some more outlines for my poker book
[x] sch is going great

So in a way, mission accomplished. Gonna chill out, and have some fun over the weekend with some live poker and regenerate my desire to play next month. Till then, cya!

3rd Week Update - Push for a huge last week of May

+$100 NoIQ bonus
+$182.33 NoIQ cashback
+$247.55 FTP rakeback

Profit = $2240.82

Finally got the time to log in hands, though its only about 1K+ per day, its definitely a good start. Normalization of my EV did occur, and my luck equity is now slightly -ve for this month (I wonder if i should be happy or sad, cus it is always going to normalize). Felt that I played okay, sometimes real bad at certain spots, together with running slightly bad in the last few k hands. Nonetheless the results is still pleasing. 5 PTbb/100 at 100nl is a winrate i'll take all day.

I guess another AHA moment occurred to me this week. Managed to multitable alongside with many multitabling solid 22/20+++ regulars. Experimented abit with my game, and started 3betting/4betting light and get into good spots. I've made a couple of solid regulars on my right quit the tables cus its just too hard to play aganist antoher regular on their left who is always 3betting/bluffraising small pots out the shit of them when they themselves are opening lightly.

A note on exploitation. Every play can be exploited. Regulars and fishes alike. Key is to adjust to your reads and play accordingly. When you enter a game not thinking about making money, but just exploiting tendencies, it can be real fun this way!

Gonna push for a huge week to end May on a high. Gd to all at the tables.

100k hands Check-up

Since Dec till Current date.



Close to 50k hands at 50nl and about 45k hands at 100nl, and the rest are miscellaneous hands in other limits.

+ about 0.02cent/hand for rakeback
+ about 1k in bonuses

I guess I've hit the 10k profit mark since December.

Running at about 5ptbb/100 for both 50nl and 100nl, can't really complain about that. Last checked I'm doing about 35US/hr (not inclusive of bonuses and rakeback) over this 100k hand sample, so thats something pleasing. It's probably the best temp job in the world.

Only qualm is the quantity of hands I've logged in the past 6 mths or so, 100k hands in 6mths isn't that impressive. Leatherass clocks 100k hands in less than 1 mth usually. Bad for me that my ass ain't leather and I've got my schooling schedule to contend with, alongside with other commitments.

Lets hope things get better in the 2nd half of this year!

Mid May Updates

+$117.82 NoIQ cashback
+$101.40 FTP rakeback

Profit = $1256.81

Back from my holidays and spent some of the greatest days of my life this year on a beautiful resort with a splendid beach. Back to the grind and sadly still not able to log a massive volume. Nonetheless things are looking cool as of now. As of yet an ipod classic and a camera is on its way, courtesy of the very useful FT Points that I've happily dumped. Great stuff from poker.

There are a couple of things that I'd like to achieve this month, namely:
1) kick-start and clear my coaching back-log
2) write up more on my poker "book"
3) put in the biggest month ever for this year
4) hitting my 100k hands mark (since december. another 7k more hands to go)
5) Study well for my philosophy module
6) Have a great holiday/study balance

Couple of goals are already on its way in this seemingly busy month. Somehow I feel so much more alive when I'm busier, yet I also yearn for the slow paced, easy going life that has been pampering me over my holidays in Malaysia.

On a poker related note, I realise one mistake newer players make is that they constantly sweat the small stuff instead of worrying of the bigger picture. Very often we see newer players wondering what to do with a given hand in a given situation. Whereas personally and i suppose regular players play poker in a different view.

Instead of worrying about a specific hand, worry on the bigger picture instead. A good general advice is somewhat like this. "you assume a handrange for your opponent, and then you take the most +EV decision you can aganist his handrange"
The later part of the advice will come in terms of betting lines and sizes. When you start thinking in a broader manner, most decisions will be almost automatic and standard, and it rarely involves specificities. While situations may vary, concepts in poker go a long way. Looking poker at a different and broader angle does somewhat simplify a seemingly simple but deeply complex game.

I'm also facing a dilemma of my own, after starting to open up my coaching services. While I'm glad that there are many new and enthusiastic players who are eager to discuss poker with me on a private level, I've to balance the interests of my students together with the interaction of these eager players. After rationalizing with myself and my trusted gf, it became clear of where my initial priorities should be. I have to be fair to my students who are putting their money in good faith that they will learn and gain something valuable out of their experience, that will put them in good stead ahead of other players without this learnt knowledge.

I'd strongly advice players to make full use of forums available, be it 2+2 or pkaki, for fruitful discussions. The onus is on the player to learn, and not via spoonfeeding and waiting for something to happen or to trying to get some quick advice from some other players. I'll still see myself contributing to public resources but as for private materials, i'll have to reserve them to cater more to the needs to my students for now.

Well thats it, wishing everyone to have a great May at the poker tables!

May 1st Week. Holidays woooo!

+$38.63 NoIQ cashback
+$84.30 FTP rakeback

Profit = $800.97

Picking up where I left off last month. Decentish start to the month, all is good for a short holiday as well as putting in tons of hours to prepare coaching materials and write my own poker book. This month should be interesting!

Evolution of a Poker Player - The learning cycles.

April has passed and I just did a review of my entire blog posts since August. I think I have achieved the initial goals that I've set, less the volume part. I would say the decent results are a good bonus and reflection of the work I've put into studying of this game. Not that it is alot, there are plenty of avid students of this beautiful game that can put me to shame. But remembering a quote from AEjones (one of my fav players), to really do well in poker (or whatever games/jobs/skills etc etc), one has to let poker consume your entire life by allowing yourself to start thinking, eating, sleeping, drinking and even making love with poker. I'm no where as close to being totally consumed by it, evident in the amount of poker hours I put in actual play. However I do think alot and write alot about this game (I'm no authority to speak for higher stakes or other different forms of poker), a game that is definitely beatable by a varying degree. Being the perfectionist I am, I just can't pass up the opportunity to solve this beatable game at the stakes I play.

I would like to recap my learning cycles since I started playing poker, all of them falling into separated categories. My feel is that most if not all players go through the same cycle as well.

Unconscious Incompetence - Not knowing you don't know
All beginners start at this stage. We do not know alot of things in poker and we are not aware of our ignorance. We start off just by playing two cards, ignorant of basic concepts such as pot odds, implied odds, drawing odds until we hear someone say something about them and "Hey! let me do some read up and research on these funky lingo spoken by those weird poker guys."

For any enthusiastic new player, this part of his learning cycle is one of the steepest. For there are gazillion amounts of new information for this new player to absorb and to apply. Some hardworking and better ones learn and apply newer concepts in their games, while there are others who simply remain in the "Ignorance" zone, and for whatever reasons these players are just not learning and applying the concepts into their games. When this learning curve is kickstarted, this brings us to the 2nd cycle:

Conscious Incompetence - Knowing what you don't know

As the new player starts to apply newly learnt concepts in poker, and due to the nature of poker (that results do not necessarily verify the viability of a certain concept), he gets into more interesting spots that he is unsure of. He becomes aware of his soft spot, or leaks in general, that needs to be rectified. By being consciously aware of stuff that he doesn't know or is unclear on, he is then able to direct his efforts into learning and correcting them.

Personally, it is at this stage I struggled the most on, in about a year back. Being bombarded by the myriad of information and advice available on the internet, I felt there is just too much intricacies of the game to learn on, and applying them effectively is a greater chore. I learn a new concept, apply them, and still I'm not sure of whether I'm doing the right things. If the first stage of learning cycle is the steepest, then this stage can be considered the deepest and widest. When you start to be aware that you don't know - and I mean don't know ALOT ALOT ALOT of stuff- it can be very draining and demoralising in your games.

To be able to proceed beyond this stage, I believe it is impossible to do it as an individual. You will be lost in the sea of information, and without proper feedback channels, you will just be like me at this stage, knowing what I don't know, and very unsure of what I know. You will need a peer group, a mentor, or someone who has been there to properly guide you and teach you what you NEED to know. I managed to ease myself thru this stage via coaching subscriptions and just learning by players who have been there, done that. With the availability of coaching services and sites out there, this learning stage has been very much reduced. This is also one of the reasons why the games are getting tougher in the major sites. In a nutshell, I feel that paying to learn is a decent investment that will give its returns over and over again.

Unconscious competence - Not knowing what you know
This stage is not a separate stage by itself, as it shifts between the first two stages. As mentioned, during the first 2 learning stages, there are just too many new things that I learnt that subconsciously, I do not even know that I've learnt and done the right things correctly.

Another example that I can fully relate myself to is that when I first got the coaching subscriptions, I was just mimicking the actions done by the Pros into my games, without knowing the reasons of why I'm doing that. The pros say "3betting suited connectors in position is +EV against a late position raiser" and I go "Oh I see! Lets just do it." Alright apparently I "know" what to do, but in reality, I'm totally unaware of the reasons of why I'm actually doing it.

I would say that this stage is the real inflexion point of any player who is trying to advance his game. It is like climbing Mt Everest, reaching the last col before the summit, and you are already out of breath, dying. Only the strongest can cross the inflexion point and make it. The reason why this point is a tough one to break is because of the "ignorance" factor of what you know (which should be alot by this stage). Playing robotic poker without knowing the reasons for your play is commonplace for multi-tabling grinders. Tagfishes fall into this category. Any form of poker without thinking (on the presumption that you "think" that there is a standard play for every situation) fits in as well.

Breaking through this stage requires alot of individual thinking of the game. It is when you start probing the intricacies of the game that you will learn and cross this inflexion point. A simple example is thinking of the differences of having AK on a K72 board compared to a KJ10 2-toned board or a K67 2 toned board. Another way is to keep asking questions such as "How do I make my big pairs AA and KK earn more and lose less?" When you start digging deeper and deeper, you may hit rock sometimes. But in reality, you have struck gold by the simple act of thinking. The best exercise that I can recommend is that for every play that you make, be it bet,check,fold,raise, be very sure to have a good logical reason before making the play. Talking to yourself privately "I cbet this flop because ........", "I fold because......." When you talk to yourself, you will find yourself making less unwarranted spewy and stupid plays. Again you have struck gold by putting yourself closer to stage 4 of learning curve,

Conscious Competence - Knowing what you know
Being totally aware of what you are doing on a poker table has dramatic consequences. Personally, after the lessons from my coach, the greatest takeaway was the confidence I've drawn by knowing what I've been doing right and what I've been doing wrong. The simple act of knowing, and having the confidence to know that "Hey, what you have been doing is correct and you should constantly be doing that" from your coach helps validate your plays on the table. No one can take that confidence away from you when you just know you are making the right plays more often in situations you face. (Obviously there is no way you can make the right plays in ALL situations, else you will be Patrik Antonius)

This part of knowing what you know can be dangerous too. The reason why it is called a learning cycle is because it is supposed to be one. When your learning cycle stops at conscious competence, it can even bring about disastrous outcomes. The act of believing that "you know it all" is a sign of overconfidence, and it can hurt your play. My personal example is that whenever I run very well and feel that I'm on top of my game, I tend to hit a downswing pretty quickly due to certain bad plays by having winner's tilt. The good thing about a downswing is that I always end up playing better and having more experience coping with it. The reason is because in order to improve(and get rid of the downswing), you go through the same 4 stages of learning cycles again to review, critique and refine your plays. And whenever you do that, you struck gold again.

Conclusion
In the quest for improvement, the four learning cycles are constantly shifting in and out of your poker game. The important point to takeaway is firstly, be aware of the phases of learning cycles you go through, and secondly, not to be stuck in one particular phase of a learning cycle for too long. If you do find yourself stuck, do seek help from your friends, a mentor, or anyone with a different perspective. (On a side note, many middlestakes to highstakes NL players take coaching from various coaches so as to get a different perspective of the game whenever they are stuck in a particular limit that they can't beat) I would also have to conclude that in order to improve, one has have the work ethic to put in independant study of the game. Poker afterall is an individual game and it is very important to have your own personal views of the game.

The Real April Summary

Can't resist playing more hands towards the end of the month.

30.10 hrs played
$74.14/hr

+$100 bonus noiq
+$130 Cashback noiq
+$142 rakeback FT

Total profit = $2603.6

End April Summary

29.48 hrs played
$64.50/hr

+$100 bonus noiq
+$130 Cashback noiq
+$134 rakeback FT

Total profit = $2265.8

Savvy results this month, despite being a heavy one due to exams and stuff. Last paper to go and I'll be off to a holiday! Anyway I'm happy with the win and hourly rate at the stakes I'm playing. Dabbled abit in some HU games, which I feel is highly EV simply because there are too many smallstakes players with plenty of exploitable tendencies. And of course, once you know their exploitable tendencies, it will just be a matter of logging hands and draining their money away.

Lately I've been comparing the levels of play across different sites, it seems to me that in FT, the preflop game is more aggresive compared to NOIQ or Stars, and the postflop game is pretty straightforward. One of the things that have went well for me this month is my preflop play. I can make do with a tighter 3betting range and a wider 4betting range since in FT, the regulars are doing it the other way around, having a wide 3betting range and a narrow 4 betting range. I think I have made alot more 4betting decisions with hands that I can't really call a 3bet with. Therefore its somewhat very polarised and and so far it has worked out to my advantage.

Again some intangible principles always work well and it reflects on result. Table selection, giving decent regulars respect, exploiting bad regulars obviously, and playing in good times. Have recently picked up Elements of Poker from Tommy Angelo, and the intangible aspects he spoke of that affects your poker game is so much more than what I've imagined. In terms of having a strong mental game, Tommy Angelo is certainly up there. I pride myself strongly on my mental game, but after reading this book, there is certainly so much more to learn and refine. Strongly recommend this book to any poker players. (I hardly recommend any books unless they are real good, since I'm a born critique and skeptic)

Table games:
19.27 hours played
$50.55/hr

+$90 bonus noiq
+$130 Cashback noiq (30%...prettygood deal)
+$33 rakeback FT

Total profit = $1226.90


The month would have gone awesomely well if not for the short downswing. Interestingly, I'm up about 500 bucks in luck equity this month, I hope this +correction is for all the badluck in my long-gone database last year. If not, I sense an impending doom coming soon!

Been thinking about the game abit and analysing the games at Noiq. There are players over there who multitable like robots, marginal winning or even slight losers. The way they earn is via rakeback/cashback and all the rakeraces. I'm pretty sure they are making more than me in terms of actual money but the difference is that they have to put in insane amounts of volume. So I think the question is would you choose to play a kind of robotic senseless poker (Yes there is really robotic senseless poker that you don't really think about betting lines, reading hands and all that) or to play real good poker, both making the same amounts of money.

I think one of my bigger leaks so far is the amount of volume and hours I put into the game. I probably spend more time watching instructional videos than putting the actual playing time into it. Averaging 20k hands a month is already quite an achievement right now, but that number is mediocre by my standards. In the holidays, I'll probably set a higher goal in terms of logging hands. I am pretty sure I'll be able to log in a big month if i simply continue to put in the volume.

Exams are coming and once they are over, things should get interesting. I'll be developing my coaching programme, write some sort of a poker book. And also move up to 200nl permanently as I'm switching between 100nl and 200nl a little this month. The quality of play isn't much difference if you table select decently. Just that sometimes after my session I would think "Wow I just played with more than 1k US on the tables." And yet in poker you can't really think of the money in absolute values, but rather in betting units 1bb 10bb etc etc. Well, for now lets clear the exams first!

An insight on Variance/Luck/Running Good or Bad/ Sklansky Bucks

Introduction
It is very common to hear that poker is a game of skill and that the better player will win in the long run. To a consistent winner, luck matters in the short term and what matters most is playing well over the long run. This statement, though albeit general, is pretty much the law of poker. Yet many people fail to understand this aspect of poker and start blaming their bad run for their bad results. And before long, their mental attitude towards luck becomes an increasing large hurdle for them to overcome, before they can even start to become a breakeven or marginal winner in the stakes they play.

Objective
The objectives of this article is to provide the readers with a clear and theoretical insight of what the "luck" element in poker is all about through the use of this tracking program called PokerEV. This program (working in hand with pokertracker) calculates your actual equity whenever you are in an all-in situation(showdown), and compares this calculated value with the actual Sklansky bucks you have won/loss in the all-in situations(showdown) you encounter. It also shows your actual total winnings inclusive of the non-showdown pots you play. What this program does is to give a graphical view of how well/bad you actually run in all-in situatins. Through the use of this program, there are a couple of implications and takeaway lessons that can help improve your poker game in general.

Sklansky Bucks
Lets introduce Sklansky Bucks before we go deep into the program. Sklansky bucks is a theoretical value that shows your actual equity that you will earn/lose over a long run. For example, if you have AA and you got it all in preflop aganist KK with effective stacks of $100, the actual odds to win are 80% and 20% respectively. When you win the hand, you actually net the entire pot of $200, giving you a net win of $100. In Sklansky bucks, you have only won $60. Lets do the maths.

For a run of 5 hands, assuming you win exactly 80% of the hands with AA (and 80% of the time you will win in this situation over the long run).

4 wins x Net won of $100 = $400
1 lost x Net loss of $100 = -$100

Total net won over 5 hands = $300.
Average won per hand = $300 / 5 hands = $60 Sklansky Bucks.

You will see this $60 sklansky bucks/hand is the actual amount you will win in the long run if you keep getting AA vs KK preflop, instead of the usual $100 you have won.

Now lets see how KK fares in its Sklansky bucks.

4 lose x net loss of $100 = -$400
1 win x net win of $100 = $100

Total net loss over 5 hands = -$300
Average loss per hand = -$300/5 = -$60 Sklansky Bucks.

So obviously if you have KK and you know you are aganist AA everytime preflop and you get it in, you will lose $60/hand in the long run.

The Sklansky bucks is applicable to all hands and all situations as in every holdem situation, the exact EV can be determined. The concept of not drawing when you do not have a good price (pot odds) is because everytime you draw when the price is not right, you lose Sklansky bucks! And losing Sklansky bucks in the long run = losing money!

A Graphical Illustration


This is the actual PokerEV software analysis graph of my hands since December 07.
The blue line shows the actual winnings of your hands that get to showdown (inclusive of all-in situations).
The red line shows the calculated Sklansky Bucks dollars you should have made. Do note that in this program, the calculated Sklansky Bucks dollars is ONLY for all-in situations. The reason why it does not calculate S.Bucks street by street is that it does not provide a conclusive value when hands do not get into showdown. The delicate reasonings can be found in forums posted by the author of the program.
The green line tracks your actual total winnings (inclusive of non-showdown pots).

Implications of Graph
There are several implications that the graph can tell a player about his game.

1) A constantly rising Sklansky Bucks is a sign of a consistent winner. It means that you are consistently making +EV plays and theoretically you are suppose to win. Vice versa, if your red line is always going downwards, then you are always getting your money in bad (not running bad mind you, but getting it worse with much less than 50% equity)

2) When your blue line (all-in showdown winnings) is above your red-line, it means you are running good (winning more $ vs theoretical Sklansky Bucks). Likewise if your blue line is below your red line, it means you are running poorly and you can proudly claim that lady luck is not on your side.

3) Over a large hand sample, the blue line always converges to the red line. What this really means is that the times you run good = the times you run bad, and that the notion of luck is in fact short-termed. Hence the better player who wins sklansky bucks in the long run will win in poker.

4) It is very possible to run good for a good sample of hand, and this gives you the illusion that you are a winning player. It is also very possible to run badly for a good number of hands too! This is probably worse and it drains confidence off the good players.

Some takeaway lessons

1) The first and most significant point is that your blue line converges into the red line, showing clearly that when all your chips are all-in and you can't really do anything about the outcome, the results always converge to a theoretical number. Luck is indeed short-termed and over time it will even out.

The implication of luck being short termed is that if you have been running good for a number of hands, you should expect your luck to run out in the near future. Say you have a +$500 luck-adjusted equity, you should expect to lose this $500 in the future. This means that your AA will not hold up that often, your sets may run into high flushes and straights, your flushes will run into fullhouses and so on and so on. The reverse is also true, if you have -$500 luck equity, you should expect to win more in the future, either by sucking out on others, or having your strong hands hold more often. (For the AA vs KK hand, whenever your AA holds up, you win an additional $40 dollar more than your theoretical Sklansky Bucks).

2) The understanding of this notion of luck is a key component in any successful poker player. He has to have the emotional stability and mental ability to understand how luck works in poker, and continue to play his A game consistently. Yes it can be very irritating when a donk sucks out on you when you have a very strong hand, but that does not reflect on your true results in the long run. As poker players, results of individual hands rarely matter, but rather, poker players should see and gauge their results over a long sample, in terms of hands or weeks/days/month.

3)The concept of variance is partly entrenched in this discussion of luck. We hear of "Oh, I'm having a 10 buyin downswing currently" pretty often. A good part of it could be due to results converging as well as bad play. Likewise when we run good, we usually play better and win more as a result. Being aware consciously of what short-termed variance actually is will do greatly to improve your mental stability in Poker.

4) The idea of having mental stability in the face of potential variance swings is easily the most under-rated skill to possess in poker. As all poker players start off by learning the correct moves to make, making the right plays at the right time, taking the best optimal line, we realise that most of us are more concerned with the technical aspect of the game. When in reality, intangible aspects such as luck plays a huge role in poker. Having the mental aptitude to understand the intangible aspects of poker will definitely do more good compared to having the aptitude understanding all the technical aspect of the game but having a weak mental game.

Good start to April.

Noiq has been great. The game is softer, level of regulars are much weaker. There are just too many TAG fishes, less than 15 VPIP/10PFR regulars who just don't know what to do against the general standard TAG stats (about 22/19) who are found everywhere at FT. Hope april ends on a high. (and hope I can put in the volume before studies kicks in)

March Summary

60.82 hours played
$27.92/hr


+$150 PSO bonus
+$20 referal bonus
+$200 Fulltilt server discconection bonus
+$175 FT rakeback
+$200 Pokerroom bonus

Total = $2442.85

End March Report

54.98 hours played
$26.76/hr

+$150 PSO bonus
+$20 referal bonus
+$200 Fulltilt server discconection bonus
+$165 FT rakeback
+$200 Pokerroom bonus

Total = $2206.4

Had to post this end march update early so as to stop myself from playing more. I think its a decent month all together, putting in the hands as well as having a decent winrate at the limits.

I did play a bit of breakeven poker at ongame just to clear my bonus. Didn't really like the attitude and thought of wanting to long more hands just to clear the bonus, resulting in me not playing my standard "A" game. Nonetheless I'll take such winrates anytime for a good sample.

Next mth will be busy with school, so I guess it will be minimal poker and less updates.

Mid March Update

Merged my laptop handhistories into my desktop PT:




33.78 hours played
$34.31/hr

+$150 PSO bonus
+$20 referal bonus
+$200 Fulltilt server discconection bonus
+$130 FT rakeback

Total = $1655.75

Could have been better if not for the short downswing at 100nl. Just got creamed pretty bad playing a little too loosely, making 2nd best hands by the river that I could'nt get away with. Anyway thats it for the short update, I have another 200 Pokerroom bonus that I've cleared halfway. This is probably the most number of hands I've logged in the middle of the month compared to the previous few months.

Laptop stats march

Results were better than I expected, close to 10 buyins in about 1k hands. Running good on my laptop obviously.

Weekend Report - Taking a Break

Stats from desktop:




13.18 hrs played
$24.81/hr

+$150 PSO Bonus
+$37.02 Rakeback

Profit from desktop: $509.1

I think i logged another about 2k hands on my laptop with a profit of close to $500 plus rakeback, will give a concise update when I get back to hostel. Month has been great so far, and more so when I ran PokerEV. My resutls are -$200+ under expectation, so I'm playing well but still running bad in spots. Anyway hitting 1k profit mainly from grinding 50nl in the first week, in less than 10k hands is a great result for me.

I'm gonna take a good break from poker. I did think alot about poker for the past week or so, and this is one thought that came to me:

I believe everyone's has a fixed level of talent or ability. Some are just talented in poker while others are not. I don't think I'm that talented at all, just better in understanding and putting in alot of "thinking" hours into the game, working hard to learn. I can't control my level of skills (there may be a CAP of my talent scale), however what I can do is to control my other aspects of the game: tilt/bankroll management, table/seat selection, playing at donk hours, staying away from regulars (even if I do have an edge aganist them), maintaining my desire to play poker, feeling comfortable and wanting to play when I actually play etc etc. The mental aspect of poker is what my mind can control, and I believe striving to be good in these aspects will help to improve your winrate and your mental game.

Now I feel pretty tired and a little burnt out from playing, going to ease off the pedal, and then restart to clear another 200 bonus from FTP. Time to prioritize and put what matters more first.

Shania - Balancing and Range Merging

I've read a great post here about Shania. I believe the first person who have really thought deep into this is Aejones and he is the guru in terms of merging ranges.(http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=143451and the discussions that spurned from it.) Shania is probably the conceptualized idea of how game theory really works in poker. How Shania really works is that it makes your game less exploitable and more balanced as a whole.

This article will be my conceptualization of what Shania really is in Poker. It will be an attempt to put Shania in simple in an understandable lingo and the purpose is to show the importance of balancing/merging of ranges in Poker.

To quote the OP Bobbosfittos (who is an excellent coach in leggopoker):
"Shania in short is having a range of hands rather then a particular hand for an action, so that it's possible to get further paid off and not be read easily.". In simple terms, its about having a merged range of hands doing a particular action compared to having a polarised range of hands performing the same action.

Examples of Shania
Do note these examples are not exhaustive, they are just my interpretations of Shania.

Preflop : Raising junk hands preflop as a semi bluff is Shania. You do so to allow raising your big hands (AA, KK, AK etc) more profitably and getting paid off in the other streets. If you are only raising quality hands, then its not Shania. Your range is polarised, because observant players know that when you raise preflop, you hold mostly the nuts. The same idea goes with reraising preflop as semi bluffs, this is Shania as it allows you to profitably reraise hands like AA and KK and getting them paid off more.

Flop : Cbetting (when you are preflop raiser) with nothing is Shania. When you Cbet on A-high flop as a bluff because all books say you can represent AK in your range, it allows you to profitably bet with AK on A-high board. (and they become more profitable). Likewise for checkraising flops as bluff and for value(Shania). You checkraise with the goods as well as air so that you become less readable and straightforward, people will have a harder time understanding your ranges for checkraising.

Turn : Double-barrelling bluffs on suitable turn cards (broadways etc) is as well as double-barrelling for value is Shania. You are merging your ranges when you are betting (bluffs as well as value).

River : Same as above, when you are betting thinly for value and when you are bluffing.

The Gist of Shania
The main gist of Shania is to be aware of your own poker game, such that you play a balanced one, instead of a non-balanced one. Your range is highly polarised when you perform action X when you only have Y. This makes your game highly exploitable and probably less profitable.

Against a skillful and observant player who understands about range merging, when you balance your bluffs and value betting aganist such players, you will be playing in a less exploitative manner. (Assuming the skilled observant players knows how to exploit your tendecies) When the assumption is non valid, then you can play the same way as you do (balancing your ranges/merging) aganist them and still be less exploitable on the whole.

Aganist a weak, poor player who doesn't understand about range merging, usage of Shania allows you to profit more from them. Poor players tend to overgeneralize and have skewed perceptions of your ranges and tend to overcompensate by adjusting too much. For example, if you are betting the nuts on the river and get called down by a poor player, (and he knows and believe you are only betting the nuts on the river) you can profitably bet with bluffs on the river on future occasions because they tend to overcompensate by thinking you have the top end of their perceieved polarised range (the nuts). Likewise if you are caught in a bluff on the river, poor players will usually assume that your bluffing frequency is higher than normal, allowing you to value bet thinly and profit more on future occasions.

The actions of Shania are not limited to river bets only, try thinking of other streets (infact all actions taken by you is part of Shania). The above example reflects the idea of game theory optimization, and how you can make use of this optimization to increase your profitability in the poker games you play. We all know that poker is a game of bluffs as well as value betting. The whole idea of Shania is to have a balanced form of both in your approach to poker.

Reflections

Poker has been going really well for me for the past few weeks. For my past 15k hands in 50nl across all sites, my winrate has been incredulous. I guess it's coming all together after plenty of studying, coaching, reviewing and learning. It's pretty interesting that such results came when my desire to play poker was so great. Got to thank my busy sch schedule with its endless projects and assignments for it. It's a vicious cycle of wanting to play poker, having a good winrate and confidence, feeling happy and wanting to play more poker.

On a philosophical note, poker is very much an individual sport that rewards an individual capability in it. Personally, poker is a game that requires alot of effort on your part in order for you to become a solid winner. Simply playing alot doesn't cut it. I've known of many friends, whom only understanding of poker is to keep playing and logging hands without the desire to critically review and understand the "gist" of poker. My best advice to them is to study more, play less, and study more again.

To illustrate how complex poker really is, consider the complexity of just the flop on a headsup pot. "What is the likely range of hands my opponent is holding, that can hit/miss this flop"; "How far ahead is my range compared to his"; "What are my reads on his betting patterns, tendecies, how does he react to a cbet/raise/check/call"; "how do I extract maximum with my nuts, whats my betting size and plan, how can different bet sizes induce different actions given the situation and history b/w me and him"; "how do I balance my range when I bluff and hit the flop"; "what betting line should I take that makes it looks the strongest/weakest" etc etc and many more.

And for every street, they can be ripped apart and analysed as such in great detail. You will be amazed at the kind of things you learn when you try to think things through, and you will be amazed of your own results when you apply them to your games.

If you have been playing poker by matching your holecards to those on the board, then you have to realise there is still so much more in Poker than just the cards. Cards alone often play a factor, but Poker is a game of Situation and People. When you get to understand the game in terms of handranges (as compared to absolute hand values), you will start to understand "Situation" more. When you start to make good observations of opponents' playing style and develop good reads, you start to play the "People" more. All these may seem nitty gritty details, but rest assure they are key factors in your winrate and results.

Even in this article, there are many grey concepts that you won't fully comprehend or understand. Poker is similar as well. For every situation there is something new to seek out, learn, review, critique and assimilate. Having an active and open learning attitude will lead you to improve drastically. Many poker players in their online/live career have their "AHA" moments, moments that are ENLIGHTENING and significant, perhaps life/poker defining moments. To some, it may be an all-in calldown with A-high when you know you are well ahead of your opponents range, or an innocent poker player quote. To me, one AHA moment was when I was reading Jman's well post in 2+2. His "root-beer" hand taught me a great deal on alternative bet sizing and gave me a totally new insight to playing poker. Another AHA moment was pretty recent, in which I was experimenting with a looser-wild style with good table selection, and making use of my poor image to win bigger pots.

I end off with a question that promotes a deeper thinking of the game. "If you realise that your big pairs AA and KK are making very little money/or losing alot with them when they are cracked, what should you do to make your big pairs earn more and lose less instead?"

Variance - March Results

I run hot.

Feb summary

PT stats:
11084 hands
Won: $992.50
10.51 PTBB/100
22.12 hrs played
$44.88/hr

Rakeback: $140.93
Fulltilt bonus: $75

Total profit: $1208.43


Pleased with results but not so with the volume of play. Sch has been busy so much so that poker is minimal. I'm glad with both sch and poker anyway. March will be worst, so hopefully I can get some quality hands in.

Mid Feb Update

PT stats:
7877 hands
Won: $1378.80
18.39 PTBB/100
16.13 hrs played
$85.46/hr

Rakeback: $95.83
Fulltilt bonus: $75

Total profit: $1549.63

Volume of hands aren't outstanding but results are pretty good. Will be busy for the next few weeks or so, so no more poker I guess. Will be a miracle if I can break 10k hands this month.

Sustainable?

Other than the money won, I'm more than happy with my stats, having higher Won when saw flop which means I'm picking up pots more than I deserve. As well as my att to steal, which indicates my opening up of my play. Not to mention, I'm running really good aganist the fishes, my sets and weaker made hands holding up. Year of the rat has been nice to me so far.

I guess one of the outcomes of my coaching lessons was to reinforce the things that I've been doing right, giving me more confidence to make plays that are +EV. I'm also spotting good +EV spots better (like squeezing and 3betting) and am doing it at better spots compared to previously, when I'm just spewing around. Reinforcing my confidence reflects on results. Poker is very much a confidence game and you will realise you'd do better when you are feeling good about your game, and vice versa.

Feb update

PT stats:
4099 hands
Won: $589.65
14.39 PTBB/100
6.98 hrs played
$84.44/hr

Rakeback: $50.26
Fulltilt bonus: $75

Total profit: $714.91


Super table selection + playing at donk hour + coaching = robusto! Last month loss is quickly negated in just 4k hands, just goes to show the swings of cash game poker. Though at such stakes, it should not be that swingy if you have the discipline to table select well everytime you play. Nonetheless 20k-50k hands breakeven stretches are pretty common. Just gotta stomach such stretches and continue to play well.

Anyway poker has taken a backseat and I will be moving to hostel in a weeks time. Right now I'm thinking of poker related projects to do with my spare time, one of them is writing a compilation of articles conceptualizing my style of play and my understanding of poker.

Thats all for Feb! Have a great CNY!

Jan Summary

PT stats: (for new database)
14954 hands
Won: -$1124.50
-4.06 PTBB/100
28.25 hrs played
-$39.81/hr

Rakeback: $209.78
Year End Bonus: $206.04

Total profit: -$708.18


Jan was pretty sucky, after my good run in december, kinda expect results to normalize but not in such a manner. There were sessions where I dropped a couple of buyins in a few straight hands, standard coolers of big pairs vs big pairs, AK vs AA KK etc etc pretty standard stuff. I didn't think i played particular well after my poor initial start of the month. At the same time I was working in concepts learnt over coaching into my game, being a little too spewy for my own good haha!

One takeaway for this is that since the start of school, I've not been that focused on poker. Poker has dropped in priority since schoolwork has been piling up. (thats why the low number of hands logged) Also, even when I'm playing, I'm not playing at the better times when donks fill up sites, as well as not table selecting well enough. Well i guess the results do highlight the result of this two elements very clearly.

Poker is swingy alright, short updates on feb coming up